The scale of the war in Ukraine, which the Russian government had thoroughly hidden, was revealed through exploration and statistical tracking. According to the Associated
Press on the 10th (local time), Russian independent media Meduza and Mediazona analyzed the number of Russian soldiers killed in the Ukraine war that began in February last year with data scientists from the University of Tübingen in Germany. The result was a maximum of 47,000 people. Mediazona and the BBC Russian language service initially built a database of war dead based on social media posts and photos of cemeteries. They mobilized volunteers to individually verify the identity of the deceased, whose name was only exposed, through multiple sources. Thus, by July of this year, 27,423 Russian soldiers were concluded to have died on the battlefields of Ukraine. The deaths not exposed on social media were estimated using the Russian government’s inheritance statistics. Mediazona and Medusa used the concept of excess mortality, which was used to estimate the total number of deaths from a novel coronavirus infection (Corona 19). Excess mortality has been widely used during the pandemic to determine the actual number of deaths in countries where the number of infected people is not known due to poor health infrastructure or where the government manipulates health statistics for political reasons.
Without any reason to explain, it was not unreasonable to regard the death toll as the greatest risk at that time, the COVID-19 infection and the resulting collapse of the health system토토사이트.
According to an analysis of inheritance data from 2014 to May of this year in Russia, the number of inheritance cases per year for men aged 15 to 49 was 25,000 more than last year.
If the period is extended to May 27 this year, the number of excess cases soared to 47,000.
It is evaluated that the fact that deaths have soared in these men may simply be the realization of a low probability, but it may also be a figure pointing to the deaths.
Dmitri Kovac, a data scientist at the University of Tübingen, applied his technique for estimating excess deaths from COVID-19 separately to Russia.
As a result, 24,000 more Russian men under the age of 50 died than expected in 2022, which was almost similar to the results of the inheritance statistics analysis.
Based on data science, up to 47,000 Russian military casualties in the Ukraine War is much higher than Russia’s official announcement.
After announcing last year that the death toll was around 6,000, the Russian government has been hiding the specific scale.
Currently, in Russia, mentioning the number of casualties is punished under the Russian Military Defamation Prevention Act, which was implemented after the war in Ukraine.
The number of Russian casualties analyzed this time is broadly similar to the US government estimate. The White House said in an analysis in May of this year that 20,000 more Russian soldiers had died since last December.
According to leaked US National Intelligence Service ( DNI ) documents, the death toll in Russia last year was estimated at 35,000 to 43,000.
The British Ministry of Defense claimed that between 40,000 and 60,000 Russian troops were killed in an estimate presented in February this year.
Affiliated Defense Intelligence Agency ( DI) pointed out in a daily information update that day that during the 17 months of the Ukrainian war, an average of 400 Russian soldiers were killed or injured every day.
DI explained, “Russia struggles due to lack of medical supplies during battles.”