“For a long time, the desirable models for Korean society were the United States or Sweden. The model as a realistic compromise was close to Germany’s. “But at the moment it seems most likely that we will follow Italy’s path.” In <Road to Italy> (The Power of Thought), writer Jo Gwi-dong diagnosed that if things continue like this, the future of Korean society will most closely resemble the current state of Italy. Although Italy is an advanced country, it is an old advanced country in which further development is difficult to expect. The economy is unable to find vitality and politics is mired in the shackles of populism. It is also the country with the lowest birth rate among OECD member countries. On October 20th, I met writer Jo Gwi-dong at the Kyunghyang Shinmun office in Jeong-dong, Seoul.
-You predicted the future of Korea as Italy.
“Esping Andersen divides welfare states into three types. These are market-oriented liberalism in the United States and the United Kingdom, social insurance-centered conservatism in France and Germany, and social democracy in Northern Europe including Sweden. To this, Maurizio Ferrera added Southern European-style familism. Korea’s welfare system is closest to the Southern European model, that is, Italy. The Italian labor market, like Korea, has a strong dual structure divided into regular workers at large companies and irregular workers at small and medium-sized enterprises. The dual welfare structure is also similar, with social welfare such as pensions closely linked to job status. Asset-based welfare based on a high self-ownership rate is also similar to Korea. The same goes for family-centeredness and gender discrimination that remain deeply culturally rooted. Italy, like Korea, has experienced miraculous economic growth. Italy is not just a tourist country. After World War II, the economy grew rapidly, centered on manufacturing. Although it suffered from wage surges and oil shocks in the 1970s, it regained vitality in the 1980s with the emergence of a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises producing high value-added products. GDP per capita surpassed that of the United Kingdom in 1974 and France in 1980. “It occupied the position of the world’s 5th largest economy in 1982, but collapsed after the 1990s.”
-Why did it collapse?
“There were huge social and economic changes, but there was no reform in the political and institutional areas. In 1992, the prosecution’s large-scale investigation into political circles, called ‘Mani Pulite’, completely destroyed the existing political order in Italy. As a result, the Socialist Party, the Communist Party, and the Christian Democratic Party collapsed. Political parties with over 50 years of history did not fall suddenly due to a prosecutorial investigation. Due to maintaining the old political structure for decades without being able to adapt to changes in the economic and social structure, political parties were already becoming increasingly vulnerable as their supporters continued to leave. The Communist Party was at a loss as the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe collapsed, and the Catholic ethics and corporatism of the Christian Democratic Party did not work in the new era. What filled the vacuum of the collapsed political order were far-right or right-wing populist parties such as ‘Forward Italy’ led by former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, ‘Northern Alliance’, and ‘Italian Social Movement’.”
-Do you think Korean politics today resembles that of Italy?
“The situation in Italy, where new political forces based on populism emerged as existing political forces lost their appeal to the public, looks like the future of Korea. It is difficult to find traces of the Democratic Liberal Party or the Democratic Party of the past in the current appearance of the People Power Party or the Democratic Party. Can Lee Jae-myung’s Democratic Party and Kim Dae-jung’s Democratic Party be considered the same? Likewise, are those who are raising their voices in the Yoon Seok-yeol government the same as the conservative party politicians of the past? For example, let’s look at Liberation Chairman Lee Jong-chan, who served as a National Assembly member of the Democratic Justice Party. In an interview with the media during his tenure as chairman of the National Provisional Government Memorial Hall construction committee in 2018, Chairman Lee said, ‘The person who hated the provisional government the most was North Korea’s Kim Il-sung. He said, “The legitimacy of the Republic of Korea must be strengthened by embracing all independence movement forces, excluding Kim Il-sung’s group, around the Provisional Government.” What is the current compensation? Hong Beom-do is also fighting with Liberation Association Chairman Lee Jong-chan by engaging in identity disputes, including the removal of the general’s bust. “It is as if John McCain, a representative conservative politician, was pushed out in the United States and Trump emerged.”
-Are Korean politics also moving towards populism?
“If a political party fails to demonstrate leadership in the ‘issue of making a living,’ the only thing it can put forward is populist elements such as ideological struggle. The reason conservatives are having an identity debate now is because they have no other option. Korean politics has neither the capacity nor the will to solve major issues such as finances, society, welfare, labor market, and immigration. Instead, populist politics based on internet media such as podcasts and YouTube are rapidly gaining ground. The same goes for the Democratic Party. The reason the previous government put historical debates such as ‘indigenous Japanese pirates’ at the forefront was because there was no alternative to present in the ‘problem of making a living’.”
-The origin of the current political order was named ‘Roh Moo-hyun order’. What is the ‘Roh Moo-hyun order’?
“The current political order in Korea, the way political parties and politicians compete, and the composition of supporters were created during the time of former President Roh Moo-hyun. It is a form of democracy in which political parties serve as platforms or marketplaces and influential politicians attract the public without relying on political parties. In the end, we thought that we should pay attention to the person named Roh Moo-hyun, so we named it ‘Roh Moo-hyun Order’. Another axis of Roh Moo-hyun’s order is the qualitative advancement of the export-oriented economy. In the 2000s, major conglomerates such as Samsung and Hyundai Motor Company began to dominate the market as they adopted qualitative growth strategies. As a result, an upper middle class group was formed based on the success of large corporations, and a lifestyle suited to them was also created. For example, housing price fixing among residents of large apartment complexes began in earnest in the early 2000s. According to a study by Professor Hwang Ji-soo of Seoul National University, there began to be a difference in the child-rearing time of parents of college graduates and parents of high school graduates in the early to mid 2000s. The ‘intensive parenting’ that was seen among the upper middle class in developed countries such as the United States and Europe with children born between 1980 and 1990 has also appeared in Korea.”
-It was said that the ‘Roh Moo-hyun order’ collapsed during the Moon Jae-in administration.
“As Korea gets closer to becoming a developed country, the contradictions of the ‘Roh Moo-hyun order’ become more acute. As Korean society became an advanced society, social changes, changes in voters’ interests, and subsequent changes in political support undermined the foundations of existing political parties. Taking the Democratic Party as an example, its core supporters include the upper middle짱구카지노 class in large cities and the low-income class from the Honam region. As the economy developed, inequality deepened, and as a result, the interests of the two constituencies widened completely, making this union untenable. Not only did inequality deepen, but traditional distribution and redistribution mechanisms also did not work properly. The background to the past Democratic government’s success was its vision of welfare politics, such as ‘free school meals.’ It is easy to think that the beneficiaries of welfare politics are simply the socially underprivileged, but in fact, the main beneficiaries of social welfare are the middle class. Based on the mechanism of ‘welfare politics’, the breadth of the support coalition was able to be expanded. In the past, there were quite a few areas of welfare that the middle class could benefit from, but now this has become increasingly saturated, and welfare politics has stopped working as the middle class is reluctant to increase taxes. “At the same time, the Moon Jae-in administration was unable to maintain the existing support coalition.”
-As the support coalition gradually disintegrated, the socially and economically disadvantaged became ‘structural swing voters’ who changed their party support every 5 to 10 years. The results of the June 2022 local elections were cited as a clear example.
“The Democratic Party’s share of seats in Gyeonggi-do city, county, and district basic councils steadily increased from 28.3% in 2006 to 64.6% in 2018, but decreased to 51.2% in the 2022 election. Immigrants from the Honam region and white-collar workers who did not have enough economic power to reside in Seoul left the country. The Gyeonggi Province election results suggest that the political order established during the Roh Moo-hyun administration is no longer working properly. Widening inequality in the asset and labor markets is not a temporary phenomenon, but a result of structural changes in the Korean economy, that is, entering the developed world. “The reason it has become difficult for the upper middle class, the core of the Democratic Party, to gain support from other social classes, unlike before, is because it has become clear that the interests of the two groups are different.”
-As inequality deepens, the social contract that says ‘you can become middle class’ no longer works.
“Professor Koo Hae-geun said that the hope that ‘anyone can become middle class’ acted as a kind of ‘social contract’ in Korean society. ‘Middle class’ has been used very widely in Korean society since the 1980s. The belief that if you work hard you can get opportunities and live a better, more stable life is concentrated in the ‘middle class’. This social contract has collapsed. A representative example is the ‘Pangyo Newlyweds’ that was popular a few years ago. Pangyo rather than Gangnam means that the source of wealth is now the ‘ IT field’, and both spouses are assumed to be professionals. They have enough money to live in an apartment worth 1.5 to 2 billion won, and they have ample physical and cultural capital, such as playing golf on weekends. This is a very high standard, but as it has become the standard lifestyle of the upper middle class, it has become impossible for anyone to achieve it. I believe that the situation in which these things are occurring is a sign that middle-class society is collapsing. “It no longer provides any hope or material foundation for improving living conditions.”
-You said that as Korean politics is drifting, ‘no decisions can be made to change the system.’
“Low birth rates are a representative example. Countries that industrialized in the 1960s and 1970s experienced rapid declines in birth rates. Developed countries that have successfully responded to the problem of low birth rates have largely adopted three methods. There are two ways, like in Sweden, where labor market systems are overhauled through a grand compromise between labor, management, and government, or like in the United States, where the government leaves it to the free market and introduces various systems to support it. Also, like in France, there are ways in which the state takes the lead in investing finances while pragmatically acknowledging non-traditional family structures such as cohabitation, single parents, and remarriage. Whatever the method, I changed it. The worst thing is to do nothing. There is a phenomenon of ‘policy drift’ conceptualized in the field of social policy. As the conditions under which policies are created change, pressure for policy changes increases, but because it is difficult to change the system, it is left as is. As a result, the function of the policy may not function properly and may disintegrate or deteriorate. This is a problem that arises from an inability to make political decisions. The most representative one is financial issues. Korea relies on a small number of large corporations for most of its tax revenue. In short, if Samsung Electronics’ semiconductors sell well, there is a financial surplus, and if they do not sell well, there is a deficit. This needs to be fixed, but it is not fixed. The current government’s fiscal austerity is not because there is a plan, but because there is no money, so it is simply not spent. Where is it not used? In the end, the R&D budget was reduced because there was little political resistance and there was no need to spend it . This is not an intentional attack on R&D . When the government acts in such a way that it will only do what will result in the least amount of political resistance, bigger problems arise. It is a ‘crisis of omission’, an unwillingness to do anything. Problems like these will arise in all areas, whether pensions or health insurance. “I think it’s a bad omen.”
-A new political order is needed, but why is it not emerging?
“We must present to the public a vision that can solve their life problems. In the United States, the most representative examples of ‘political order’ are the New Deal and neoliberalism. Both present ‘how ordinary people can prosper’ through clear promises. As neither the New Deal nor neoliberalism worked, politicians like Trump emerged. Ultimately, what is important is the question of how to structure the political structure. It cannot be done simply through slogans, nor by political elites alone. This is not possible with just a few political party organizations that only work for the highly involved in politics. Broad mass mobilization must be possible, and a broad ideological complex system that can mobilize intellectuals and experts on a large scale is needed. To create such a political structure, you must ultimately present a project, but there is no answer in sight. “It is not a problem that I can foresee or solve, but is an area of political practice.”